With Trump’s Impeachment well Underway how Likely is it he will Actually be Removed?

So what actually happens if Trump is impeached?

If the two articles of impeachment put forward by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are approved by the house then a vote is brought to the senate which can in theory remove President Donald J. Trump from office.

So how likely is that?

short answer: not very…

But let’s break it down anyway…

 

So in order for an impeached President to be actually removed you need a two-thirds majority of the Senate to vote for removal, the senate is of course a republican majority at the current moment.

Despite forty-four Democrats that will almost certainly vote for removal and three swing-vote Democrats who let’s say for the sake of argument will vote for removal, you still only have forty-seven.

Let’s even throw in some swing-Republicans (or more rather Trump-skepitcal / disapproving) of which you have five: Corey Gardner, Susan Collins, Ben Sasse, Lisa Murkowski, and Mitt Romney.

Now we have fifty-two and remember this is somewhat of a longshot still, but even with that you don’t have enough.

If by some stretch the four Republicans who are nearest to retirement, and thereby have no real electoral pressure to side with Trump you still only have fifty-six, it’s the thirty-six republicans with considerable electoral pressure and general predictability that spell long odds for Democrats looking for the removal of President Trump.

This nevertheless does not prevent Trump from becoming one of only three sitting Presidents to be impeached, assuming the vote today does go the way it seems to be expected to go.

So whether you’re a fan of Trump or can’t stand him (or somewhere in-between) the outcome looks likely to be fairly mixed no matter what…

 

Read even more about this at FiveThirtyEight

Which Senators Are Likely To Vote For Trump’s Removal?

 

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