Willie Waffle’s Oscar Predictions! – Best Actor

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Photo Courtesy Focus

It’s the most wonderful, magical time of the year as all of Hollywood will spend Sunday night pretending like quality matters.

By the end of the big Oscars ceremony on Sunday night, some history will be made, some people will experience the crowning achievement of their careers, and others will be bitter about losing and will forget the night in a drunken haze of after parties and $80,000 gift bags.

Of course, this brings us to the point.  Who is going to win an Oscar?

Each day, I’ll give you a prediction or two, and you can watch the Oscars on Sunday night to mock me when I am wrong.  And, don’t forget to check out NewsPlus with Mark Segraves this Sunday at 10 AM as Mark and I duel it out in an Oscar Predicting Battle with massive consequences!

Today, who will win Best Actor?

The nominees are:

Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave)

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Christian Bale  (American Hustle)

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf Of Wall Street)

This is The Amazingly Shirtless Matthew McConaughey’s race to lose, but I also think it is the category most likely to see an upset.

McConaughey has won almost all of the big awards leading up to Oscar night, including the Critic’s Choice (he got my vote in that one), the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild award.  Most of all, you want to pay attention to that SAG award.

The last 9 men who won Best Actor at the SAG Awards also won the Oscar.  This is because many of the SAG voters also vote for the Oscars, so you can take this as a sign that they like him, they really really like him.

However, my only concern is that McConaughey may have peaked too early.

This year, Oscar voting started later than ever, so many of these huge awards were given out almost a month before the Oscar voting started on February 14, which gave the other contenders a chance to catch up and campaign.  Because of the campaign, watch out for Bruce Dern or Leonardo DiCaprio.

Dern would become the oldest man to win Best Actor if he pulled off the upset, and there could still be some Oscar voters who want to reward the old vet, but I don’t think he has the same stature as someone like Paul Newman did when he finally won in the twilight of his career.

However, DiCaprio is the old vet with that stature to many of the younger voters, and he has never won even though he has 4  nominations for acting (and 1 for producing The Wolf Of Wall Street).  Tom O’Neil from Gold Derby has been making the case that Leonardo has been campaigning like crazy and could get the win (and Tom will appreciate that I gave him credit for the theory).

Yet, I don’t think DiCaprio wins for The Wolf Of Wall Street because, even though he may have peaked early, the campaign for Dallas Buyers Club has been full of the stories Hollywood romanticizes.  It’s the little movie that could that overcame problems getting funding and McConaughey lost all of that weight to show you he always has been a great actor, even when wearing a shirt.

Waffle Prediction:  Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

And, please join me at The National Archives Wednesday – Sunday to see all of the Oscar nominees for Best Documentary for FREE!!!!

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